Pursuant to FAR 13.106-1(b), the Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration (ITA), a bureau within the U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC), intends to issue a sole source purchase order to Victoria University for a Dynamic General Equilibrium (GE) model and database of the world economy that enables ITA to analyze the impact of the IPEF and APEP agreements on the economies of the members and the global economy over a short to intermediate-run period incorporating industry specific capital and an explicit financial market structure. Victoria University has previously shown that they have the knowledge to fulfill the requirement which will Develop and transfer a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of global trade that incorporates a module containing an explicit specification of financial flows that can be used to analyze the IPEF and APEP agreements. The International Trade Administration’s Office of Trade and Economic Analysis (OTEA) performs in-depth trade and economic analysis for industry and policy decision makers and provides a solid foundation of trade and industry data to support the development of national trade policies. Recent tasks assigned to OTEA have demonstrated that OTEA’s analytical capabilities would benefit greatly from the acquisition of a dynamic global Computable General Equilibrium model with realistic assumptions regarding industry capital and wage rigidity, as well as a fully formed financial sector.

The Center of Policy Studies (CoPS) located at Victoria University, is a world leader in the development of dynamic computable general equilibrium models. OTEA has used United States Applied General Equilibrium (USAGE) model and database for more than 10 years and believe that such employment/procurement has ensured that OTEA fulfils its analysis capacity and keep up with high quality research in US industry competitiveness. In 2020, CoPS developed a dynamic model based on the GTAP database similar to the model proposed here that was successfully used to analyze the ramifications of a decoupling of the U.S. and Chinese economies. It is the view of OTEA that the Center of Policy Studies is best suited to develop a model with the desired characteristics for the current IPEF and APEF analyses. The existing alternative dynamic global CGE model is produced by the Global Trade Analysis Project. The members of the quantitative analysis team in OTEA have carefully explored this model including receiving training in its structure and use. Because this model lacks the characteristics described above with respect to capital, labor markets and a fully formed financial sector, OTEA found that the dynamic model produced by the Global Trade Analysis Project dynamic model does not fulfill OTEA’s requirements making Victoria University the sole provider for this requirement.

The intent of this notice is not to request competitive quotations and no solicitation is available or will be issued. Any information received from interested parties will only be considered solely for the purpose of determining whether a competitive procurement should be conducted. Interested parties may submit a description of their firms’ capabilities for satisfying the requirement, which demonstrates they possess the ability to successfully perform this effort. All questions concerning this matter should be addressed directly to Stephanie Rhodes at Srhodes@doc.gov .

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