Modelling Actuary: Actuarial valuation, policy analysis and capacity building partnership with PERKESO, Malaysia (Албания - Тендер #64230554)

1. Background

The Employees Social Security Act 1969 (Act 4) stipulates an actuarial review should be carried out at intervals of at least every five years or at such other times as the Minister of Human Resources may consider necessary. The ILO carried out the eleventh actuarial valuation as of 31 December 2019 and the next (twelfth) actuarial valuation will take place as of 31 December 2024.

The project is focused around three key outcomes. Firstly, the undertaking and delivery of the actuarial valuations for four schemes. Full actuarial valuation reports including key results and recommendations, and reference to compliance with ILO Convention 102 will be completed. Secondly, a range of policy and technical support to PERKESO on extension of coverage (of existing schemes and proposed new schemes), policy and financing reform and management issues will be provided. Finally, there will be a strong focus on capacity building including the delivery of the actuarial models for the different benefit schemes to allow PERKESO to carry out actuarial analysis on their own plus tailored training on actuarial, financing, risk management and extension of coverage issues.

These Terms of Reference refer to the work related to the preparation of the valuation of the Employment Insurance (UI) Scheme (Act 800) as of 31 December 2025. This will the second actuarial valuation of this scheme; the first valuation was carried out by another organisation.

To carry out this work, the Modelling Actuary will work closely with the Senior Actuary as well as with the Chief Technical Advisor (CTA) and Head of the Regional Actuarial Services Unit in Bangkok and PERKESO actuarial staff. The work includes the following elements:

• Data collection, analysis and management
• Assumption setting including macroeconomic and demographic framework for the valuation
• Model calibration
• Production of demographic and financial projection and results under the Base scenario and reconciliation with the previous actuarial valuation
• Carrying out of sensitivity analysis and reform options

This document therefore sets out the Terms of Reference for the Modelling Actuary for this work.

2. Activities

The Expert will carry out the following activities summarised as Preparatory work for the actuarial valuation of the Employment Insurance Scheme (Act 800) and including:

1. Together with the Senior Actuary, manage and review the analysis of the previous actuarial valuation of the EI scheme, any other previously undertaken actuarial work, existing information on any recent reforms of the scheme and available demographic, economic, labour force and financial data and scheme specific data on insured persons, contributors, pensioners as well as past financial statements and other relevant information in collaboration with the CTA and PERKESO.
2. Draw up a formal data collection request for data as of 31 December 2025, submit for review to the Senior Actuary and coordinate with the CTA and the PERKESO actuarial valuation team before finalising. Liaise with PERKESO to ensure appropriate data is collected. Together with the Senior Actuary, assess the suitability of the data provided for the ILO actuarial model working with the PERKESO team. If necessary, the modelling expert will develop an additional data request. Compile and analyse the collected data with a view to use in other analysis and to support assumption setting.
3. Propose appropriate scheme-related demographic and economic assumptions in consultation with the Senior Actuary, CTA and the PERKESO actuarial valuation team by taking into account historical trends, factors impacting future development and where relevant, experience of other countries. Analyse experiences of major parameters and indicators, compared to expected outcomes of the last actuarial valuation, including a review of investment and financial operations of the social security schemes, an assessment of coverage and its evolution since the last valuation, the development of the labour force, salary experience and benefits paid out.