Terms of Reference (ToR) for a consultancy on Qualitative and quantitative research on extension of social security coverage in Jordan (Албания - Тендер #52661058)

Terms of Reference (ToR) for a consultancy on Qualitative and quantitative research on extension of social security coverage in Jordan

May December 2024 (tentative) I. Project Background

PROSPECTS

Overlapping drivers of displacement worldwide have coincided and increased the scope, scale and complexity of displacement. Approximately 25.4 million individuals are recognized as refugees who have fled their homes due to a well-found fear of persecution. This is alongside millions of internally displaced persons and those who have fled their homes but are not recognized as refugees by the 1951 Refugee Convention. As a country neighboured by Iraq, Syria and the West Bank, Jordan is facing a historic forced displacement crisis and as the crisis extends into the next decade, the country is at an inflection point, given the scope, scale and protracted nature of the displacement. In response to the considerable challenges posed by forced displacement, a new strategic partnership, named PROSPECTS, was established by the Government of the Netherlands, IFC, UNICEF, ILO, UNHCR and the World Bank. The partnership spans eight countries and covers a five-year period (2018-2022).
Through the Prospects partnership, the World Bank, IFC, UNICEF, UNHCR and ILO aim to leverage their comparative advantages and areas of expertise to programme complementary and interdependent interventions that address education, employment and protection challenges that negatively affect the livelihoods and well-being of host communities and forcibly displaced persons. The combined efforts of the organizations will endeavour to bolster the medium- and longer-term development goals for host communities and forcibly displaced persons to access quality and market-relevant education; decent work and enterprise opportunities; and comprehensive protection systems.
ESTIDAMA++
Over 50 per cent of the workforce in Jordan is in the informal economy where there is increased risk of exploitation and a lack of social protection coverage. The exact number of informal workers in Jordan is difficult to measure, but based on previous labour force surveys, certain characteristics appear to increase the likelihood of workers being informal, marked by their lack of social security coverage. Workers in micro and small enterprises, non-nationals, and workers in particular sectors such as construction and agriculture, all have lower rates of social security coverage. A combination of factors such as legal exclusion, contribution cost, awareness and employer compliance, influence participation. Without some form of social protection, workers face higher financial risks and consequences to their well-being when contingencies, such as
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sickness, unemployment, and work injury, occur. The right to social protection is universal, and one in which Jordan has taken important steps to realize.
Through the Estidama++ Fund, the Jordanian Social Security Corporation (SSC) and the ILO seek to support participation in the social security system through the provision of a financial subsidy and information on social protection rights and benefits. Estidama++ provides a coverage reward (in the form of a quarterly incentive payment) to employees and contribution subsidy to employers to incentivize registration in the social security system and support continued compliance with contributions into the medium/long-term. As part of the wider extension of coverage and formalization agenda, the project also works to improve the enabling environment, through investment in capacity building, institutional coordination, social dialogue, and evidence generation to support the adoption of a national model for subsidized contributions. Donor government participation from the Kingdom of Netherlands, Kingdom of Norway and the Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office of the United Kingdom helps offset the risk incurred by the SSC in extending benefits to groups who may be unable to pay full contributions in the short-term. II. Assignment Background
Jordan and the social security system
Jordans economy has grown steadily in recent years, weathering the pandemic and global volatility with relative stability. Despite a generally positive outlook, there is significant weakness in the labour market with low rates of job creation and unemployment standing at 22.9% (youth and female unemployment is close to 50 and 30 percent, respectively). Jordans Economic Modernization Visiona outlines the governments key priorities for the next decade. Chief among them is creating 1 million new jobs, and within this target, addressing the high rates of informality (more than 50% of Jordans workforce operates in the informal economy).
When looking only at social security coverage, informality is highest amongst non-Jordanian workers. 96% of Syrian employees lack social security coverage, compared to only 24% of Jordanian employees who lack coverage. However, given the larger absolute size of the Jordanian labour force, Jordanians represent one-third of all employees without social security coverage. Outside of social security, Jordanian host community members and Syrian refugees rely on different forms of social assistance to secure their needs. For the host community, this includes poverty targeted assistance administered by the National Aid Fund. For refugees who are registered with UNHCR, they receive a combination of food, health and cash assistance. Both NAF and UNHCR assistance is prioritized for only the most vulnerable households based on family size, disability, gender of household head and other considerations. For host community members and refugees who are working formally, they are to be registered in Social Security, providing them with insurance throughout the life cycle including protection in instance of unemployment, maternity, work injury, death, disability and old age.
a https://www.jordanvision.jo/en
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The social security package in Jordan covers old-age, disability and death, work injury, maternity and unemployment. Monthly deductions total 21.75b per cent of the wage, with 7.5 per cent borne by the workers and 14.25 per cent by the employer. For a minimum wage salary, the total contribution amounts to 56.55 Jordanian dinars (around 80 USD) each month.c From the time of registration, social security members can access work injury, disability and death insurance, but these benefits are often not understood and come with different qualifying conditions. Longer-term benefits, including old-age, are intended to support members after they cease to work after the hit retirement age. By law, all workers, regardless of nationality or status, are to be registered in social security and are entitled to all benefits should they meet the conditions equally applied to national workers.
A combination of factors influence workers registration and permanence in the social security system. Social security is sometimes perceived by both workers and employers as an additional cost or income tax that cannot be covered by low wages. There is further reluctance among employers to register workers formally and absorb the associated costs of formalization. The social security package heavily tilted towards old age pension benefits also does not meet the immediate needs of protection for vulnerable groups and their families. This is particularly of concern for refugee workers, who face uncertain future prospects. Information constraints also restrict both sides willingness to contribute to social security. As a result, approximately half of all workers in Jordan are working informally, without social security coverage. Coverage rates are extremely low even amongst full time employees with permanent contacts and regardless of sectors.
Jordans Social Security Corporation (SSC) has deployed several measures in recent years to promote employment and extend social security coverage to workers in the informal economy, including refugees. During the pandemic, SSC waived employee contributions for agricultural workers employed in holdings d (only work injury and maternity leave employer contribution is required)e. A legal amendment in early 2023 maintained these instructions. SSC Bylaw No. 104 of 2020 waived contribution for old-age insurance for workers in newly registered firms in the agriculture and IT sectors. The bylaw also introduced mandatory coverage of self-employed workers in certain sectorsf, establishing a tranche system for old-age contributions that permitted a selection of full or partial coverage for old-age insuranceg. The sub-articles were subsequently cancelled in new amendments this year, although internal instructions are pending for their application. The 2023 legal amendment also added an exemption for workers under the age of 30, for up to 50% of the OADDI contribution, with the aim of boosting youth employment. This
b The full contribution rate 21.75 per cent is divided between the workers (total 7.5 per cent as 6.5 per cent for the old age, death and disability and 1 per cent for the unemployment) and the employers (total 14.25 per cent as 11 per cent for the old age, death and disability, 2 per cent work injury, 0.75 per cent maternity and 0.5 per cent unemployment)
c The minimum wage for Jordanians is set at 268 Jordanian dinars per month, while it is 240 for non-Jordanian workers, including refugees.
d Agriculture Holdings are lands registered with the Ministry of Agriculture for the purpose of agriculture production. Holdings can have multiple agriculture firms on them (sub-leasing etc.), or be a single firm itself.
e SSC Law No. (1) of 2014 and its amendments.
f In 2020, the SSC adopted a bylaw to the Social Security Law that made coverage mandatory for self-employed workers in the agriculture, construction, transport, tourism, public service and maintenance and art and media sectors.
g Social Security regulations specify five different pension contribution levels for which self-employed workers can contribute, at 10% of the full contribution, 25%, 50%, 75% or 100%.
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article remains in effect after the new changes. Thus far, the uptake for certain categories of workers including refugees, agriculture workers and the self-employed, remains low.
Under the framework of the PROSPECTS partnership and the EU-MADAD, the ILO, together with UNHCR and the Social Security Corporation,h has worked towards extending social security to Syrian refugees in Jordan. This includes work to model social security schemes that address cost and information barriers, while jointly crafting communication messages for refugees and host community members on social security rights and entitlements. The two projects also join forces with an ILO supported fund within the Social Security Corporation (Estidama++) that provides short-term income support and subsidized contributions for certain categories of refugee and host community self-employed workers and agriculture workers.i
In collaboration with the WB, the ILO is conducting a joint research project to determine barriers to access to social security amongst informal economy workers and identify avenues to reform existing programmes at the SSC to enhance uptake amongst workers in the informal economy. While many informal workers are poor (and poorer than formal workers), many are not in the lowest income deciles, suggesting that many have the ability to contribute. A more focused demand side research is required to provide greater insight on what type of incentives, and services would support increasing the coverage and inducing informal workers to contribute. The demand side research would also be used to provide alternative tailored designs for very heterogeneous workers and needs, in a financially sustainable manner. III. Objective
Assignment objective
The purpose of this assignment is to undertake demand side research to determine new measures, policies and programs to increase and maintain coverage in SSC, through recommendations to improve the alignment between the benefits offered the system with the diverse needs of the population. The activity will build upon the existing supply side analysis, identifying short-term benefits and initiatives that sustain labour market participation that can be offered to different clusters of workers in the informal economy to increase the attractiveness of participating in SSC. The study will focus on self-employed workers, migrant workers and refugees. The overall expected outcome would be to improve coverage and adequacy of benefits while supporting the financial viability of the SSC programs.
Research questions
The main research questions are the following:
h The ILO in Jordan is an active partner of the Social Security Corporation. It has provided technical assistance and guidance in routine actuarial evaluations, costing exercises and the design of schemes. Moreover, the ILO had signed with the Social Security Corporation a technical framework for the years 2020-2023 that aims to strengthen various aspects of the social protection and the social security system in Jordan, including providing direct technical assistance and support. The activities under this framework will contribute to ensuring that sustainable and adequate social protection coverage is extended for all in need and contribute to the formalization of the informal economy, as reflected in the Decent Work Country Programme for Jordan.
i Further information on the fund, Estidama++, can be referenced here: https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---arabstates/---ro-beirut/documents/publication/wcms_846294.pdf
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" What enhancements to the current system design would encourage certain profiles of informal workers to contribute regularly to SSC programs? Specific focus will be on self-employed and refugees.
" How can incentives be used to redesign some of the SSC existing programs, including the voluntary scheme and Estidama ++?
" What can we learn from best practices in terms of how short-term benefits can attract different kind of profiles of workers?
The methods will correspond to the following main research questions:
" Acquire qualitative understanding of obstacles to contributions:
o reliance of other strategies for support during lifecycle contingencies
o administrative barriers
o lack of knowledge and trust of government and social security institutions
o liquidity constraints, exposure to shocks
o alternative saving goals (house, land, schooling fees, business investment, bequests)
o lack of financial literacy and planning
" Elicit preferences over incentives programs and other features
" Short-term benefits attached to social security contributions
" Contribution flexibility
Activities
The research will be based on a mixed methods methodology, and will include three main tasks:
1- Compile case studies of international experience of covering the informal sector, based on International Social Security Standards. The objective is to provide national counterparts with reference examples in which to frame the discussion and research objectives. It is envisioned that these examples will be presented in a workshop format.
2- Identify obstacles and incentives to contributions, initially focussing on self-employed and refugees. The objective would be to acquire qualitative understanding of obstacles to contributions, such as administrative barriers, lack of knowledge or trust etc. And elicit preferences in terms of incentives and other short-term benefits that can support regular contributions, such as contribution flexibility.
" Qualitative Phase: The qualitative phase will include focus group discussions/in-depth interviews with different profiles of informal workers. It involves designing the topic guides and sampling methodology. Results from this phase will feed into designing the instruments for the quantitative phase and provide a more in depth understanding of research questions.
" Quantitative phase: It will include surveys tailored to different groups of informal workers. It involves designing the questionnaires and sampling methodology (possibly utilize a new sampling methodology developed by the WB to sample
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informal businesses).
3- Linking findings to existing programs: This includes assessing how the findings from the research can help redesign the current programs in SSC. It would look at types of incentives that can be introduced to the SSC programs, in order to target different profiles of informal workers.
IV. Key Tasks and Responsibilities:
The consultants responsibilities will include, but are not limited to:
" Provide technical inputs on the scope of research and relevant international experience, compiling case studies and presenting to key stakeholders
" Provide technical input on the design of instruments for primary qualitative and quantitative research and utilize results in final analysis.
" Conduct analysis of previous and current SSC programmes, including Estidama++, drawing on available data.
" Guide research report drafting and findings to enhance current systems.
The consultant will be responsible for providing technical input on drafts of the survey instruments and final report prepared by the project team. The consultant will lead the presentation of international experience and analysis of previous extension of coverage efforts, in coordination with the project team.

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